Contact Information
Name: S Dube
Title: Professor
Office Location: Tahoe Hall
Email: dubes@csus.edu
Office Phone: (916) 278-7519
Mailing Address: Sacramento State 6000 J Street Sacramento, CA 95819-6043
Office Hours: Tues/Thurs12:15-1:15 PM Or by appointment
Tahoe Hall : TH-1031
Courses that I teach
- ECON 1B: Principles of Microeconomics
- ECON100B: Intermediate Micro
- ECON 192: International Finance
- ECON 193: Growth and Development Economics
Selected Publications & Book and Article Reviews
Shahbaz, M. and S. Dube (2012), “Revisiting the Relationship between Coal Consumption and Economic Growth: Cointegration and Causality in Pakistan,” Applied Econometrics and International Development (AEID), Volume 12-1, January – June.
Dube, S. and Y. Zhou 2011. “Import Demand Functions and Foreign Exchange Reserves: Evidence from China, India, Brazil, and South Africa (CIBS),” forthcoming in the Journal of Economic Development.
Dube, S. 2010, “Exchange Rate Pass-Through (ERPT) and Inflation-Targeting (IT): Evidence from South Africa,” forthcoming in the Journal of Policy Modeling.
Dube, S., 2008, “Foreign direct investment and electricity consumption on economic growth: Evidence from South Africa,” Economia Internazionale (International Economics), Vol. LXII, No.2 (May): 175-201.
Dube, S., 2008. Stock Prices and the Exchange Rate in a Monetary Model: an ARDL Bounds Testing Approach using South African Data, The African Journal of Finance, Special Edition: 1-24.
Wooster, R; T. Banda, Dube, S., 2007. "The Contribution of Intra-Regional and Extra-Regional Trade to Growth: Evidence from the European Union"” Journal of European Integration, 23(1): 161-182
Dube, S., 2002. “Zimbabwe’s Land Reform and the Environmental Dilemma.” The Journal of African Policy Studies, Volume 7, Nos. 2 &3
Dube, S. and. Masilela, C., 2006. “Olson’s Stationary-Roving Model: Application to Zimbabwe’s Land Reform.” In Africa’s Development in the 21st Century: Pertinent Issues, Opportunities and Challenges, edited by Konado-Agyemang, K. and Panford, K: Lynn Reimer Publishing Co.
Dube, S. and Masilela, C., 2006. “Rethinking the African State: A New Conceptualization on Sub-Saharan Africa,” In Africa’s Development in the 21st Century: Pertinent Issues, Opportunities and Challenges, edited by Konado-Agyemang, K. and Panford, K: Lynn Reimer Publishing Co.
Dube, S. and Masilela.C, 2004. “Olson’s Stationary-Roving Model: Application to Zimbabwe’s Land Reform and Sustainable Development.” The Pennsylvania Geographer, Volume 42, Spring/Summer: 113- 141.
Book and Article Reviews
2011.
Reviewed a manuscript titled “The ‘bitter fruit’ of a new agrarian model: Large-Scale land deals and local livelihoods in Rwanda,” for the African Studies Review.
2010.
Reviewed a manuscript titled “Explaining Nigeria’s Import Demand Behavior: A Bound Testing Approach,” for the
African Finance Journal.
Reviewed a manuscript titled “Explaining “Impact of Monetary Policy on the Output Gap and Inflation in South Africa,” for the African Finance Journal.
2009.
Reviewed a manuscript titled “Conditional Loss Estimation using an Error-Correcting Macroeconomic Model,” for the African Finance Journal.
2009. Reviewed a manuscript titled “The Direct Versus the Indirect Forecasting of the Defined Real Exchange Rate of South Africa,” for the African Studies Review.
2008. Reviewed a manuscript entitled “Child Labor and Schooling in Ghana and Kenya: A Comparative Analysis,” for the African Studies Review.
2008 Reviewed a manuscript entitled “Impacts of Free Trade Agreement on State Vegetable and Fruit Trade Flows,” for the Journal of Economic Integration.
2007. Reviewed a manuscript entitled "Wage Labor, Precarious Employment and Social Citizenship in the Making of South Africa’s Post-Apartheid Transition," for the African Studies Review.
2007. Reviewed a manuscript entitled "Sustained Foreign Labour Supply in the South African Economy: a structural analysis of cross-border migration outcomes from the perspective of Swaziland" for the African Studies Review.
2006. Reviewed a manuscript entitled “The Impact of Remittances on the Economy of a Rural Area of Origin in Benue State, Nigeria: A Computable Equilibrium (CGE) Model Approach,” for Economic Geography.
2005. Reviewed two chapters of an undergraduate text in Economic Development for Addison-Wesley Publishers.
2005. Reviewed “Beyond Adjustment in Africa: Towards a New Transnational Regulation,” for the African Studies Review.
2005. Reviewed “Conflict and the History of Natural Resource Management in Mozambique,” for the African Studies Review.
1998. Reviewed “Land Issue, Land Problems or Land Question in Zimbabwe: ZANU-PF’s Red Herring” for the African Geographical Review, 1998.
1997. Reviewed “Neoclassical Practice and the Collapse of Industry in Zimbabwe: the case of Textiles, Clothing, and Footwear” for World Development, 1997.
2001. Reviewed a book, Defining Moments, by Wendy Luhabe, University of Natal Press, for the African Studies Review.
2001. Reviewed a book, The Inconvenient Indigenous: Remote Area Development in Botswana, Donor Assistance, and the First People of the Kalahari, by Saugestad, Sidsel, Sweden: Nordic Institute, 2001 for the African Studies Journal.
2000. Reviewed a book, The Decline of the South African Economy, edited by Jones, Stuart, et al., for the African Studies Review
Abstracts
1. The Stability of broad money demand (M3) in South Africa: Evidence through a Shopping-Time Technology, and an ARDL Model.
Smile Dube & Yan Zhou
The paper examines the relationship of South African broad money (M3) and a set of variables such as income, opportunity cost of holding money (domestic and foreign interest rates), inflation, and stock market prices within a shopping-time technology model. The empirical evidence employs an ARDL or bounds test model to test for a stable long-run relationship between M3 and its determinants. With cointegration established, we estimate an error-correction model that reveals how short-run dynamics adjust towards a long-run equilibrium. Our results yield four important results for broad money in South Africa. First, there is cointegration between M3 and its determinants – income, foreign interest rates, inflation, and real stock market prices. Second, stock prices are an important determinant since cointegration fails if real stock prices are left out. Third, contrary to some of the received literature, the inclusion of an exchange rate in addition to stock prices causes most coefficients to be insignificant. More importantly, demand for M3 becomes unstable. Finally, a dummy variable to capture the introduction of inflation targeting introduced in 2000Q2 is insignificant. The irrelevance of inflation targeting in a money demand function remains whether we employ real stock prices or stock returns as one of the determinants of money demand.
2. Interest Rate Pass-Through and Monetary Policy in South Africa: Evidence from ARDL and FMLS Models
This paper examines the degree of pass-through and adjustment speed of the prime rate in response to changes in the repo rate in South Africa for the period 1998M4-2011M1. Inflation targeting was adopted in February 2000 as the monetary goal for the South African Reserve Bank (SARB). The repo rate was adopted as the policy rate at the same time. We use the ARDL and FMLS estimators to test for cointegration over the whole sample period 1998M4-2011M1. We split the sample at the February 2000 date and repeat the estimates for each sample. For the pre-February 2000 sample, both the ARDL and FMLS, the degree of pass-through is complete. For the whole sample and the 2000M2 -2011M1, the results are close to 1 ranging from 0.90 to 0.97. The error-correction models (short-run) estimates for the repo rate pass-through range from 0.85 to 0.92. The speed of adjustment ranges from -1.66 to -0.06. The pass-through coefficient in South Africa closely resembles those of middle-income to high-income countries. Overall, our results confirm that the monetary policy rate has more influence before 2000 and less so during the period when inflation-targeting was adopted as the main goal of the SARB. Our results are similar to Aziakpono et al. (2007) and De Angelis et al. (2005).
3.Interest Rate Pass-Through to Bank Mortgage and Participation Mortgage Bond Rates in South Africa: Evidence from ARDL and FMLS Models.
S. Dube and Yan Zhou
This paper examines the degree of pass-through and the adjustment speed of the Bankrate and partB rate in response to changes in the repo and Treasury bill rates in South Africa for the period 1998M4-2011M1. The repo rate is the policy rate while the Treasury bill rate (TBR) represents money market rates. We employ the ARDL and FMLS estimators to test for cointegration over the whole sample period 1998M4-2011M1. From the ARDL model, long-run repo rates pass-through to bankrates range from 0.83 to 1.21. Estimates higher than unity indicate the overshooting of bankrates. Long-run TBR pass-through to participation mortgage bond rates lie between 1.00 and 1.29. A striking result is that both repo rates and TBR show overshooting in bankrates and partB rates. This phenomenon is akin to overshooting in exchange rates due to price increases. Our repo results to bankrates are similar to Aziakpono et al. (2007) and De Angelis et al. (2005). To my knowledge, there are no studies that have examined repo and TBR pass-through to participation mortgage bond rates in South Africa.
4. Reserves and Exchange Rates for Small Island Developing States (SIDS): A Threshold Cointegration Analysis
Yan Zhou & S. Dube
The paper models the long-run relationship (cointegration) between reserves and exchange rates for ten island economies over 1980Q1-2009Q2. Small island developing states (SIDS) have always been vulnerable to severe shortages in natural resources, narrow manufacturing base, inability to pay for adequate imports, openness in trade, volatility in their exchange rates, and now vulnerability to climate change. The methodology tests for the null of linear cointegration. The results reject linear cointegration for all economies leaving open the possibility of non-linearity tested by the threshold autoregressive model (TAR). Our results on threshold cointegration are mixed. Some of our results indicate that cointegration between reserves and exchange rates occur when the divergence between the two is above and sometimes below each threshold. In other words, results vary from country to country. One major result is the fact that reserve tend to do more of the adjustment, thus enabling monetary authorities to stabilize the external of the local currency.
5. South Africa’s Short and Long Term Interest Rates: A Threshold Cointegration Analysis
S. Dube & Y. Zhou
This paper presents a two-regime vector error-correction model (VECM) with a single cointegrating vector and a threshold effect in the error-correction term. We use a Hansen-Seo (2002) algorithm to extract maximum likelihood estimates in eight threshold cointegration model s that relate short-term to long-term interest rates in South Africa for the period 1990M1-2010M7. We employ a SupLM test to test for the presence of threshold. The Hansen-Seo algorithm yields both linear and non-linear estimates plus critical values used to test threshold effects. The method is applied by relating the South Africa Reserve Bank policy rate, the repo (short-term) to intermediate (TB rate, money market rate) and long-term rates (the 10-year government bond, the loan and deposit rates). In all cases, linear cointegration is rejected in favor of a threshold effect.
6. Exporting with Risk: Theory and Evidence from South Africa’s Export Credit Insurance Corporation (ECIC).
S. Dube
The paper focuses on how a state-guaranteed credit export insurance firm, the Export Credit Insurance Company (ECIC), promoted international trade via credit insurance schemes. We used an augmented gravity equation to provide estimates of export insurance variables such as payment risk, coverage and subsidies in South Africa’s exports to fifty three African countries. Preliminary results indicate that South Africa’s exports to risky markets (level 7 in Table 1) have benefited from subsidies while for countries with less risk, payment risk, coverage, and subsidies all have expected signs and the coefficients are statistically significant.
7. Private Property Rights and Economic Prosperity: Some excerpts from Botswana and Zimbabwe.
S. Dube
There is a direct positive link between upholding strong private property rights and economic prosperity in political thought, philosophy and economics. The fact that economists arrived late at this recognition does not matter. The modern property rights school of economics has successful augmented the traditional economic models with institutional variables such as property rights or the Rule of Law to account for much of the variations in economic growth. This paper reviews the linkage between property rights and economic prosperity and draws some excerpts from Botswana and Zimbabwe on land reform. These economies are geographically so close and yet so divergent in their growth paths. The paper suggests that Botswana’s exceptionally growth and Zimbabwe’s anemic growth can be largely explained by differences in their property regime.
Research Projects/Interests
1. Economic Growth and Political Instability in South Africa: 1900-2011
Data: income per capita, Banks (2005) data – number of legislative elections, the number of constitutional changes, Assassinations, general strikes
Model: APARCH in QMLE in EVIEWS. To be completed in 2013.
2. Political Instability and Economic Growth: South African Times Series Evidence
Data: Terror, strikes, elect, regime, Apartheid, 1994 Elections etc.
Model: GARCH (1, 1), GARCH-M in MICROFIT.To be completed in 2013.
3. Human Capital/Education and Economic Growth: Time Series Evidence from South Africa.
Data: GDP per capita (Rands and constant prices), relative growth of GDP per capita, human capital (enrollments rates in primary, secondary, and tertiary) as percentages of working-age population [15-65 years] OR public expenditures to total public expenditures.
Model: ARDL in MICROFIT.To be completed in 2013.
4. The Budget Deficit and Inflation: Evidence from South Africa.
Data: CPI, government budget deficit, import prices, and money supply (broad money).
Model: ARDL in MICROFIT.To be completed in 2013.
5. Effects of Real Exchange Rate Volatility on South Africa’s Exports to Japan, EU, and the U.S.: 1992-2011.
6. Effects of Real Exchange Rate Volatility on South Africa’s Exports to Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and Zambia: 1992-2011
Data: exports from South Africa to destination I, real income for country (industrial production index), bilateral real exchange rate, foreign producer price indexes (WPI), South African producer price index (WPI), and the real exchange rate volatility.
Model: ARCH/GARCH and ARDL in MICROFIT.To be completed in 2013.
7. Self-Interest, Social Interaction, and Population Size Preferences in South Africa’s Immigration Policy
Professional Associations
- Western Economic Association
- Western Social Science Association
- International AIDS Economics Network (IAEN)
- The African Growth Agenda – a quarterly publication
- African Finance Journal.
- Asian Journal of Empirical Research.
- Journal of Knowledge Management, Economics and Information Technology
Current and Past Reviewer for the following journals
- African Studies Review
- African Studies Journal
- African Geographical Review
- Journal of African Economies and Finance
- African Finance Journal.
- African Geographical Review
Callout Box Demo
The library quad
Guy West Bridge
Mariposa Hall
University Union