| Sacramento Forecast Project | Yuba County Economic Forecast | California State University, Sacramento |
| revised January, 2009 | ||
| Unemployment | Fountain Predictor | Taxable Sales | Data Tables | Resources | SFP Page | ||
| Number of Persons Employed |
| The average number of persons employed (as measured by the Household Survey) in Yuba County decreased 2.4% (-608 persons)in 2008, the first decline in the variable since 2002. The forecast for 2009, based on actual data through December, 2008, is for a very similar average, unchanged from the current level. |
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| Unemployment |
| The average annual Unemployment Rate for Yuba County in 2008 rose to 12.1%, up from 9.3% in 2007. The forecast for 2009, based on actual data through December, 2008, is for a slightly higher average annual rate of 12.7%. |
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| Fountain Predictor | |
| 1/21/08: The Predictor bounced around the zero line in a "saw-tooth" pattern for the 24 months from April 0f 2005 through April of 2007 and ending with the start of the most recent negative pattern in May, 2007. The negative pattern is now 20 months old and has gotten more negative as the months have gone by. The last three months (Oct=-4.6, Nov=-4.24 and Dec=-4.23) are the largest so far in the current pattern, indicating that the civilian labor force is outgrowing the number of employed persons by at least four percentage points. | |
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| The Fountain Predictor was named for Robert J. Fountain (Professor Emeritus, California State University, Sacramento) who suggested graphically comparing the twelve month percentage change in the Number of Persons Employed with the twelve month percentage change in the Civilian Labor Force as a measure of the economic health of an area. | The theory suggests that as long as the percentage change in the Number of Persons Employed is larger than (above) the percentage change in the Civilian Labor Force, for that area, that area is in good economic health. |
| Taxable Sales |
| Taxable Sales from all Outlets in Yuba County declined in 2007, a 3.7% decline to $537.4 million. The forecast for 2008, based on actual data through the 4th quarter of 2007, is for a slight improvement, an increase of 0.4% ($2.1 million). The forecast for 2009 is a continued rebound of 1.4%. |
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| Data Tables | ||
| The Sacramento Forecast Project maintains files for these variables and the supporting variables for Yuba County, in Excel format, that can be made available on request. | ||
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| Resources | ||
For information about Yuba County and its major city, try:
Data Providers: |
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Back to Sacramento Forecast Project Update: January, 2009 Next Revision: July, 2009 URL: http://www.csus.edu/indiv/j/jensena/sfp/sa11/yub2/yub/yuba.htm Arthur N. Jensen, Emeritus Professor of Marketing e-mail to: jensena@csus.edu California State University, Sacramento Disclaimer: Professor Arthur N. Jensen takes full responsibility for the information posted. The information on this page represents that of Professor Arthur N. Jensen and not that of California State University, Sacramento. [as required in PM BA 96-13 Policy on CSUSInfo World Wide Web] |